动态竞争环境下我国企业运作模式构建的思考

在全球化、信息化和个性化为主要特征的时代背景下,我国企业所面对的竞争环境越来越复杂多变。适应这种多变竞争环境的企业运作模式主要包括企业管理模块和企业经营模块的构建。     

我国上市公司再融资与财务业绩动态变化研究

本文对上市公司再融资的3种形式及对财务业绩在时间上的变化进行了分析，提出了无论配股、增发新股、发行可转换债3种方式对财务指标的影响是下滑的，而对企业的核心业务是增强的，但不显著。发行可转债优于配股和增发。     

CGE assumptions under scrutiny: uncertainty in the ethanol promotion policy in Mexico

Based on a CGE exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in Mexico, we use Monte Carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates. The analysis provides three conclusions: when markets vary smoothly and predictably, Monte Carlo methods can then help to gauge the actual probability that a given program will achieve a desired outcome. Second, secondary markets may display little or no sensitivity to these parameter variations. Finally, a ‘razor’s edge’ outcome with no positive benefits if a critical parameter falls below some critical value, reveals that an economic policy may not be conducive to ‘fine tuning’ by marginal adjustments.     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

建设工程信息集成管理系统研究

工程项目建设与管理过程中会产生大量的物化的材料——建设工程信息。静态信息资料组卷归档后将成为建设工程项目的档案资料，为工程检查验收及日后的改建、扩建、维修、管理等方面提供极其重要的依据，动态信息则为工程建设过程的管理与决策提供强力支持，而这一切都建立在对建设工程信息的有效管理基础上，从了解建设工程信息特点入手,分析客户的需求，构筑管理系统构架,开发了相应的功能模块，并付诸了实施。     

论企业社会资本的有机构成及功能

企业社会资本是企业内外个人及组织之间的社会信任网络。它是微观、中观、宏观三个层面信任网络相互联系、相互平衡所形成的有机整体。构成企业生产能力、创利能力及企业生存发展的社会根基。企业社会资本的重要价值，是揭示了全球化、信息经济背景下。根植于关系、商誉、品牌等无形资源的“体系优势”、“动态柔性”和“创利能力”超越传统工业时代的区位优势、静态资源和生产能力，成为企业持续创新和竞争优势的来源。     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.